The AI Revolution in Sports Betting: Going from Gut Instincts to Algorithmic Edges
Sports betting has gone from a recreational hobby to a legitimate means of earning income in recent years. Just as the actual games and matches have upgraded the use of technology, sports bettors and sportsbooks are doing the same to gain an edge over one another.
We’ve heard all about AI taking over every facet of life, and unfortunately, I have to report that it has now made its way into sports betting. The AI market is booming, accounting for just over $10 billion in sports betting last year, and is expected to continue growing.
Both the bettors and sportsbooks have planted their feet deep into the ground, and it appears that not only technology, but AI, will be here to stay.
It’s a brand-new world that we’re living in, where time is money and efficiency is king. Now, it’s going to be a virtual battle, and the humans can use all the help they can get.
Bettors Building AI Models to Win
The days of closing our eyes and picking Team A or Team B to win are long gone, and a whole new world of betting has emerged. Not only are people betting on games, but player props have become one of the biggest markets in the industry.
As someone who dives deep into the sports betting markets, it’s definitely worth having a virtual sidekick in this endeavor. Especially now that we’re in baseball season, there are typically 15 games on Tuesdays, Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays, and it is nearly impossible to do a deep dive on the entire slate.
That’s where the AI steps up to the plate for us.
Predictive Modeling
AI tools have exploded on the sports betting scene, and they come in many forms, from beginner to advanced levels.
Some platforms allow users to create models without any code, so people without programming knowledge can do so. As long as a user has their parameters scoped out, like stats, weather, pace, referees, or anything like that, building a base to get started is fairly easy.
If any advanced bettors are looking for even more of an edge, the technology certainly exists. Open-source platforms like Python (which I use) and TensorFlow let users improve an existing model. A user can already have an established model, but see something from another one and add it to their own.
For reference, when I bet MLB home runs, I have the Python system gather pitching information for me, like fly ball rates (this season/last three starts), which pitches are getting hit the hardest, ballpark factors, and the umpire (along with his tendencies) that the pitcher will have on a particular day.
The same can be used for hitters in the example of baseball, gathering the data on which players hit certain pitches the best, how they fare against a left- or right-handed pitcher, and how they have done historically or over the last few days. With the right code, all of this information can be gathered in seconds.
Finding +EV Bets and Arbitrage
One of the best strategy methods in betting is looking for +EV, also known as “positive expected value” in the betting world. This means the odds offered by a sportsbook are the best overall in terms of winning more money on a victorious wager.
The best use of AI in this regard is tracking sportsbooks across the country to find the best value on an offering. For most straightforward bets like a spread or total, the odds are typically around -110. A betting model will not only find the best price around the markets, but it will also tell you what the most strategic play at the best value is.
Arbitrages are becoming even more popular by the day, as they allow bettors to make a guaranteed smaller profit by buying both positions in a particular market and exploiting mispricing. The AI models will identify these pricing discrepancies, making it easier to spot the advantages at a glance.
Sportsbooks’ AI Arsenal: Sharper Odds, Live Betting & Risk Management
It might surprise some people, but sportsbooks have been studying the use of AI in sports betting for quite some time.
Back in 2010, Dr. Michael Auer, a well-known psychologist and statistician, was the first to study behavioral gambling patterns among players using machine-learning models. Dr. Auer’s work was instrumental in shaping how AI is used today in sports betting, paving the way for major operators to build on it. It wasn’t until 2021 that AI was widely used by major sportsbooks for everyday, real-time tasks like setting live betting odds, identifying problematic gambling patterns, and others we see so often today.
Live Betting Odds, Bets Placed by AI
Live betting is one of the most fascinating aspects of gambling on sports, considering you can watch some of the game being played, and then make a conscious decision as to which way your wager will go. AI has been quite instrumental in live odds, as it can draw on data from similar situations and apply it to the present.
In 2025, Kambi reported that AI accounted for 48% of its bets. It was a massive increase: 28% of bets were placed using AI in 2024, up from 4% in 2022.
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Responsible Gambling Tools, Finding Fraud
The biggest contribution of AI has come at the benefit of sportsbooks, as they are using it to enhance responsible gambling tools. Now, sportsbooks have developed models that can spot a problematic gambler a mile away based on deposit frequency, time spent on the app, and incremental wagering (aka “chasing”).
Many of the top operators in the industry have implemented these tools on their mobile apps/websites and have been quite successful in finding the key indicators early. When Mindway AI (the first commercial platform in the industry) ran initial testing on its flagship product, GameScanner, it achieved an 87% success rate in identifying troubled gamblers.
In addition to spotting problematic gambling early on, AI has been used by major sportsbook operators to find fraud without any workforce. These systems are so advanced that they’ll eventually find fraud before it actually happens. How spooky is that?
Data Wars: Books vs. Bettors
This will be one of the more fascinating arms races in recent memory, with sportsbooks seemingly at the forefront of innovation. Or will they be?
Over the years, bettors have been upgrading their research methods, and I can attest to this. I think back to when I first began betting, in the DFS landscape in 2014, and a lot of it was off feels and vibes. Now, I’ve got 50 sheets of data to analyze against the others, and I can tell you how a guy hits fastballs on Fridays.
It is truly an eye-opening experience to see the various forms of technology and research improve over the years; it is necessary to compete with the juggernauts sportsbooks have become, since they have access to the same information. I can’t tell you how many times I thought I found a diamond in the rough; I go to put the bet in, and the sportsbook has already jumped all over it.
What’s the old saying: the house always wins? Let’s try to make that a thing of the past.
Can an AI Betting Concierge Move the Needle?
Alright, the research angle is covered, but it seems the next step for AI will be an all-in-one concierge service for bettors.
Currently, bettors can wake up to a readout of the best advantages, but as we know, things change throughout the day. Sometimes, a player will be ruled out of the game, and a substitute will come in to try to pick up the slack. Well, how will that player perform in this new set of circumstances?
The one sport I can see this being truly effective in is the NBA, where a player’s absence means more to any other sport. After all, there are only five players on the court at the same time, so a star player’s absence means that someone else will primarily be handling the ball. There are plenty of great tools already available for NBA bettors, but having this information at a moment’s notice is key to beating the sportsbooks.
Think of this as having a personal AI assistant that has everything you need to know for the day’s bets all in one spot at the drop of a dime.
The Future of AI in Sports Betting
If people couldn’t tell, sports betting has developed into something that seemingly needs a PhD to be successful at. Long gone are the days of pen and paper, and now people are rolling along with some of the best AI technology known to man.
Much like anything else in life, people want to be the best. More importantly, they want to be the most successful. It’s a good lesson to learn in all aspects of life, as people are starting to incorporate AI into just about everything.
When the dust settles, I do fear it will be a Battle of the Robots scenario in sports betting. As someone who loves the day-to-day rigors of researching every angle imaginable, I find that this narrows down my targeted bets into a profitable portfolio. I can still take those chances to make more money, but I can also take a more calculated approach.
I always laugh about betting on sports when I look at it from the bird’s eye view. After all, we are betting on the future of human beings, who are among the most unpredictable creatures on the planet. It doesn’t hurt to have a helping hand in these competitive times.
