US Sportsbooks Could Take Massive Hit if USMNT Advances Further in World Cup
It’s not an issue unique to the United States, but whenever local fandom comes into play with sportsbooks, you can imagine they have a little less of that patriotic sense.
As Method Man of the Wu-Tang Clan once stated, “Cash rules everything around me (CREAM). Get the money. Dollar dollar bill, y’all.”
I imagine the U.S. sportsbooks singing that in unison if Bosnia and Herzegovina scores against our boys on Wednesday - and going forward for any potential future opponents.
It has been quite the run for the U.S. Men’s National Team on the pitch this summer, winning Group D and now heading to the Knockout Stage. But at what cost does a huge USMNT run come at the expense of the sportsbooks? After all, a lot of Americans want to get in on this magical run and win their own.
World Cup Group Stage Sees Massive Betting Volume, Especially on USMNT
Before the 2026 World Cup began, an estimated $2.8 billion was expected to be wagered. However, if the United States were to advance deep into the tournament, that figure was expected to rise to $4.4 billion.
Many of the top U.S. operators have announced that the U.S.-Paraguay game (and Brazil’s games) were up 5x compared to the same point in the 2022 World Cup.
No exact figure has been released yet on how much handle has been taken in by U.S. sportsbooks on World Cup wagers through the Group Stage, but there are strong indications that previous records have already been broken.
Why Aren’t Exact Group Stage Figures Available Yet?
Major operators don’t release their full tournament handle this early just yet. In the coming days and weeks, we’ll likely be treated to comprehensive reports from the operators on exactly how much impact the USMNT is having on the industry.
Not to mention, the figures for these U.S. games must be massive if the operators are citing 5x figures, as it’ll take some time to sort out.
In the best estimate, we’re probably looking at about two weeks until we find out exactly how big a deal the USMNT has been on the gambling landscape. I’m guessing that jaws will be all over the floor from these figures.
USMNT Futures Odds Shortened Dramatically, Creating Huge Liabilities for US Sportsbooks
The USMNT entered the World Cup with around +5000 odds to win this year’s title. Currently, they are listed at +3000 ahead of Wednesday’s match. This puts the U.S. in the position of having the eighth-lowest odds of any team remaining, with powerhouses Germany and the Netherlands both losing in upset fashion via penalty kicks on Monday.
For this next match versus Bosnia and Herzegovina, the USMNT is listed as a massive -265 favorite. This is a huge increase from the opening price of -195, indicating that money has come flooding in on our U.S. brethren.
"The USA's strong start to the tournament has driven a surge of wagers on them to win outright. They are now firmly our most-backed selection and represent our largest liability," Caesars head of soccer Mark Bickerdike said. "A deep run from the USMNT wouldn't be ideal for profitability, but it would be hugely positive from an engagement perspective."
USMNT Shows Up Big in Group Stage
It was a remarkable run in Group D for the USMNT, which finished with a 2-1-0 mark through the first three matches.
In the opener, Folarin Balogun was the star of the show, with two goals for the USMNT in a 4-1 win. The victors avoided a letdown in their second match, securing a 2-0 victory over Australia and their place in the Knockout Stage. Thus, with the finale against Türkiye a mere formality, the US lost 3-2 in a last-second thriller.
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Why is USMNT Action More Optimistic in 2026?
For one, this is the best USMNT squad the country has ever fielded. And, as the World Cup goes on, we have seen much tighter matches than usual.
At first, I was one of the guilty parties of shrugging off some lackluster performances as rust. However, this is a pretty deep field of talented teams, and it really is anyone’s title to take. Some of the biggest favorites have already exited the tournament, leaving the U.S. with more hopeful optimism going forward, as if this country needed a reason to hop on the soccer bandwagon!
This is truly amazing to watch happen in real time, especially after the U.S. Men’s and Women’s Hockey teams pulled off historic overtime Gold medal wins over Canada in the 2026 Winter Olympics. Not to mention, the U.S. baseball team lost in the final of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. We’re having a good year stateside!
Public Bias, High Payouts
While it is very exciting for the United States to potentially go all the way in this year’s World Cup, not everyone here is thrilled. The sportsbooks understand the risks, and betting on favorites like Argentina or France wouldn’t hurt them as much.
A United States win in the World Cup would be wide-ranging across the landscape of sportsbooks because of the number of U.S. wagers coming their way. Not to mention, this is only a five-week tournament, so all of that pain would be squeezed into one big, powerful gut punch.
Americans love themselves some international competition, and with the increase in U.S. adoption of legal sports betting, these outlooks are bigger than ever. Some of the major operators have stated they have taken several five-figure wagers on the USMNT to win it all.
What a Deep USMNT Run Would Actually Cost US Sportsbooks
When considering what a deep USMNT run would actually cost U.S. sportsbooks, it is terrifying to think about the financial reckoning that could unfold in the industry.
Heading into Wednesday’s game against Bosnia and Herzegovina, U.S. sportsbooks are still licking their wounds from the first two USMNT wins. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if a few people bet on Türkiye in the third match, knowing full well the USMNT didn’t need to win.
Nevertheless, bettors are more knowledgeable than ever and realize what an opportunity this is to seize on.
The Further We Go, The Further They Fall
If the USMNT wins on Wednesday against Bosnia and Herzegovina, it will be a manageable payout, considering how big of favorites (-265) our stateside boys are.
However, in the Round of 16 against either Belgium or Senegal, things could really get interesting. Belgium would likely be a sizeable favorite against the U.S., while Senegal would likely be the underdog against the USMNT.
Should the U.S. advance past either Belgium or Senegal, they would likely face either Portugal or Spain in the Quarterfinals, both of whom would be heavy favorites against the USMNT.
Based on the odds, it’s realistic to think the USMNT wouldn’t make it to the Semifinals, but this is probably the worst-case scenario. At this point, you have to imagine major U.S. sportsbook operators starting to offer some serious cashouts to make it worth everyone’s while.
A Double-Edged Sword for the Sports Betting Industry
What an exciting time this is in the United States. As a country, the U.S. is about to celebrate its 250th Birthday, and what better way to celebrate than winning our first World Cup title.
This dynamic between U.S. sportsbooks and USMNT fans is new to us, but it is something that many other countries have dealt with before.
When I think of this predicament, I immediately wonder how England has dealt with their fair share of disappointments over the years. Many people look at England and soccer as other countries look at us in basketball, but the Brits have failed to bring a World Cup title back across the pond for the last 60 years; their last title came on home soil back in 1966.
England has plenty of patriotism and legal sports betting, so all of those international soccer failures have resulted in plenty of money going to the sportsbooks.
As I watch Wednesday’s game, I will certainly be one of the USMNT backers against Bosnia and Herzegovina. I will not be thinking about how the sportsbooks feel or their bottom dollar, but it’d be nice if they were still in business to bet on NFL games this year.
