Best Bets for NFL Week 17 Christmas Day Games
NFL Week 17 gifts us with a trifecta of games on this Christmas Day, with the Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, and the AFC-leading Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost quarterbacks to season-ending injuries in each of the last two games.
It’s certainly not the present we were hoping for under the tree this Christmas, as only one of the six teams playing today is heading to the playoffs. Nevertheless, it’s another betting opportunity for us on games where we’ve got prime data to work with.
In this article, I’ll break down my top six picks (one from each team) in the prop betting markets for NFL Week 17 Christmas Day games. Settle in and get comfy. We’ve got a whole day of NFL football ahead!
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Washington Commanders – Total: 50.5
The Cowboys and Dak Prescott have one of the most favorable passing-game matchups in the NFL against the Commanders, who will look to keep the game close by running the football. In the last five meetings, Dallas is 4-1 against Washington, with 34+ points in all of the wins. The Commanders are down to Josh Johnson at QB, which is a huge downgrade.
Dak Prescott: 270+ Passing Yards (-125)
Certainly a disappointing campaign for the Cowboys, who will be missing the playoffs this season. However, you really can’t fault Prescott for much of that. This game has a 50.5-point total attached to it, giving me even more optimism that the Dallas signal-caller gets this done.
Prescott has thrown for at least 290 yards in four of his last five games, as the running game isn’t breaking off huge gains. Even better, Washington is allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (255) and the eighth-most passing yards per attempt (6.9).
Chris Rodriguez Jr: Anytime Touchdown (+110)
No other team has allowed more rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks than the Cowboys (8). The Commanders are down to their third-string QB, Josh Johnson. Despite, Dallas being a horrific pass defense, I can’t see Johnson having much success.
This sets up nicely for Rodriguez to get plenty of touches, especially near the goal-line. After a brief one-game absence, he had a whopping five carries inside the red zone against the Eagles.
Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Minnesota Vikings – Total: 43.5
According to ESPN, the Lions have a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs. They can have some fun first, though, before making offseason tee times. Everything in this matchup screams to run the ball at the Vikings, but the Lions have the fewest rushing yards per game (64.7) over the last three. On the flip side, the running game could work for the Vikes.
Jared Goff: Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-118)
The Lions lost their starting center in last week’s loss to the Steelers, and things weren’t going great before that as it was. All of that to say, I believe we’ll see a very similar game plan, considering Detroit threw more last week than it had in any game all season.
Goff threw a season-high 54 passes on Sunday, and he had his third-most attempts (41) in the game before that. You can certainly point to those matchups requiring heavier-than-usual passing attacks, but the running game has been sputtering out of control for quite some time now.
Aaron Jones Sr: Longest Rush – Over 13.5 Yards (-118)
We just saw the Lions’ run-D getting carved up in the fourth quart against the Steelers on Sunday, so I’ve got all the confidence in the world that Jones breaks off a big one today. Over the last two games, four different RBs have had runs of last 18 yards or more.
Jones has runs of 15+ yards in three straight games – and in six of his last eight.
Denver Broncos (-13.5) at Kansas City Chiefs – Total: 36.5
On a day where each favorite comes by a touchdown or more, the Broncos are the biggest ones on the day. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, especially with the Chiefs down to their third option at QB. Denver already won the first meeting this season, and I’d expect more of the same today in a what will likely be a very ugly game.
RJ Harvey: Longest Rush – 12.5 Yards (+100)
The Chiefs have essentially checked out on this season, and it has shown in all aspects. One of the more surprising things is the defense collapsing on Sunday against the Titans, where both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears racked up 100+ combined yards each.
While KC’s run-D looks good on paper, this is more of a feeling that those times continue. Since claiming the RB1 role, Harvey has popped off a big run of 15+ yards in two of the last three games. Three different RBs have 15+ yard runs against KC in its last two games.
Isaiah Pacheco: Under 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-108)
Pacheco has gone under 10.5 carries in three of his last four games – he got 11 carries in the one misnomer. This is a Chiefs’ team that is basically willing to do whatever it can to lose games and get a better draft pick next season. They can say whatever they want in the media, but they just don’ t have the horses to get it done.
In a game that will likely not go well for its offense, I can’t imagine KC hands the ball off to its oft-injured RB. Up to this point in the season, Denver is already seeing the fifth-fewest RB carries per game (19.2) and that hasn’t yielded positive results.
