Best Bets for TNF: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 15 of the NFL season, as the Atlanta Falcons make the short trip to face Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC South showdown. Rocking the throwback orange creamsicle jerseys tonight, the Bucs are 4.5-point favorites, while the game total is at 44.5 points.
At 4-9, Atlanta is just looking to play last-season spoiler, Starting QB Michael Penix is out for the season, leaving Kirk Cousins as the guy leading this ship against a Tampa Bay desperately needing a win to stay atop the division. Next week, the Bucs have a monumental divisional clash on the road against the Carolina Panthers, but first thing’s first – the Bucs need to take care of business, just like they did in the season opener.
In this piece, I’ll break down my top picks for the Falcons-Buccaneers clash, focusing on key playmakers like Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, and Bijan Robinson. If you’re looking for sharp plays and actionable insights for tonight’s TNF showdown, you’re in the right place—let’s dive in.
Baker Mayfield: Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After not recording a single rushing yard in three straight games, Mayfield has roared back with 19+ in each of the last four. A lot of this has to do with the fact that the Bucs haven’t been playing well of late, so Mayfield has been in come-from-behind mode, leading to more rushing attempts.
The line on tonight’s game (Bucs -4.5) makes me a tad skeptical, but the good news is that we should at least see a close game. As it stands, the Falcons are certainly one of the best teams for QBs to run on, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards (23.5) and eighth-most carries (4.8) to the position. In fact, five of the last six QBs to face the Falcons had 20+ rushing yards.
Rachaad White: Longest Rush - Over 7.5 Yards (-115)
The Bucs’ backfield was certainly active on Sunday, with Irving getting 15 carries (3.7 YPC), Rashaad White getting 11 (4.8 YPC), and Sean Tucker getting seven (4.1 YPC). I would expect a similar rollout tonight on the short week, and perhaps this was the plan for this two-game stretch.
I can’t say that variety will bode well for too many overs on props from Tampa Bay’s backfield, but I do like White to break off at least one run of eight yards or more. White was the most effective Bucs’ RB just four days ago, and he’s still been pecking away at some production with Irving back in the lineup. In fact, White has exceeded 7.5 yards on his longest carry in three of his last four games – and in six of the last nine, with two of those misnomers missing the mark by the hook.
On Sunday, the Falcons allowed all three Seahawks’ running backs to post a carry of 10+ yards, which included huge runs of 25 (Velus Jones Jr) and 27 (Zach Charbonnet).
Bijan Robinson: Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
The Bucs are allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (100.6), but that number doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. Upon further review, we can see that Tampa is allowing RBs to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (77.4), meaning that QBs are getting it done on the ground against them. Well, Kirk Cousins will certainly not be scrambling too much, and the Falcons need to get creative in how they get Robinson going.
Robinson has been very effective catching passes out of the backfield, and he has topped this mark of 35.5 receiving yards in three of his last four games – and in nine of his 13 games this season. In fact, he took a 50-yard pass to the house against these same Bucs on the first drive of the season. No other team in the NFL is allowing more receiving yards per game (56) than Tampa Bay.
