Bobby Witt Jr. Will Win the 2026 AL MVP Award over Aaron Judge
It has been an outstanding career thus far for Kansas City Royals’ shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. As the son of former MLB player Bobby Witt, he’s had plenty of time to grow up around the game and soak everything in. Well, that experience has paid off, and Witt has become one of the best players in baseball, and the American League MVP award is now in his sight.
At 26 years old, Witt has already earned back-to-back All-Star appearances, two Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers, and he was the 2024 AL MVP runner-up.
But there’s reason to believe Witt will get over the hump and come through with his biggest individual accomplishment yet. The Royals play in undoubtedly the worst division in baseball, KC’s Kaufmann Stadium made some renovations to make it more hitter-friendly, and the Royals’ supporting cast around Witt is as good as it has ever been.
Of course, the big question is whether or not Witt can outdo New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who has won AL MVP three times (2022, 2024, 2025) over his career. Judge has dealt with plenty of injuries over his 10-year career, and he’s not getting any younger.
In this article, we’ll dive into Witt’s career up to this point, his odds to win AL MVP versus the field, and the factors that will put him in the winner’s circle at season’s end.
Witt’s 4-year MLB career
Witt made his MLB debut on April 7, 2022, and hit the ground running. That season, he played in 150 games but only finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting, despite hitting .254 with 20 home runs, 80 RBI, and 30 stolen bases. Witt would lead all rookies in RBI, stolen bases, and extra-base hits (57) in his debut campaign.
Since then, Witt has been a model of consistency across the stat sheet. He has never played fewer than 150 games in a season, and his true breakout year was in 2024, when he finished as the AL MVP runner-up. Witt dominated that season, hitting .332 with a career-high numbers across the board, accumulating 211 hits, 32 home runs, 109 RBI, 125 runs, and his fewest strikeout total of 106.
Kaufmann Stadium moving fences ft in
In a piece I covered a few months back, the Royals announced they would be moving the outfield walls in 10 feet. To be exact, left- and right-field walls will be moved in 10 feet, with the gaps going from 387 feet to 379, and the fence heights will drop from 10 feet to 8.5.
Kauffman Stadium has long been known as a “pitcher’s park,” but this quite a few of the team’s hitters like Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez in a much better position.
According to Statcast park-factor modeling and FanGraphs projections, this move will elevate Kauffman Stadium to league-average for homers and fly balls will even get some added value as well – turning outs into home runs or extra-base hits. Some recent studies suggest Witt could gain anywhere from 3-5 extra home runs with the new Kauffman Stadium renovations.
Witt’s MVP vs the field
Witt currently has odds of +500 at most sportsbooks, sitting only behind Judge (+215). Behind those guys, you’ll find Cal Raleigh (+1100), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1300), Roman Anthony (+1400), Nick Kurtz (+1500), and Gunnar Henderson (+1500).
The one thing working for Witt is his five-tool ability: elite marks in hitting for average and power, fielding, base stealing, and throwing power. To be honest, all of those guys can’t do what Witt does, at least at that level of excellence.
The one guy you always have to be worried about in this instance is Judge, who gets to play in one of baseball’s smallest bandboxes. Judge can essentially reach out and tap a ball at Yankee Stadium and watch it fly out of the yard. However, Judge is 34 years old now and has never played 162 games in back-to-back seasons.
If there was ever a chance for Witt to overtake Judge, and win the AL MVP, this is certainly the year to do it.
