Cade Cunningham Could Win MVP Thanks to Game Threshold
Cade Cunningham is a pretty decent MVP candidate as it is. He has a strong chance of winning it, though not necessarily on his own merit. He'd likely finish third if the voting were today, but both Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may end up ineligible by the time the voting actually takes place.
Cade Cunningham could sneak MVP award despite not being favored
Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the runaway favorites for MVP right now. Per FanDuel, Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite at -130, and Jokic is not far behind at +290. Cade Cunningham is +550, and Victor Wembanyama is a distant fourth at +1800. Jaylen Brown might as well have no hope at +4000.
When the season ends, though, there's a very strong chance that neither Jokic nor Gilgeous-Alexander will be eligible. The NBA rules players ineligible for any sort of award (including All-NBA teams) if they miss more than 17 games in a season.
As of now, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are eligible. But Jokic can only miss two more games down the stretch, and it's entirely plausible that he will sit in some games because he's still dealing with an injured knee. His health for the playoffs matters more than the MVP, but that might cost him.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a bit more room. He can miss six games and maintain eligibility for his second straight MVP award. However, he's currently out. He didn't play on Wednesday night as he continues to work back from an abdominal strain.
Gilgeous-Alexander is set to be reevaluated around now, and that will determine a lot. Usually, these evaluations take place for two weeks, so if the doctors rule he's not ready and will be reevaluated again later, there is almost no chance he'll be eligible for MVP.
ESPN's David Purdum wrote, "The uncertainty surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic has fueled betting interest in Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham. Over the past week, Cunningham has attracted more MVP bets at DraftKings Sportsbook than all other players combined. He has moved from 14-1 to the third choice at 9-2 during that stretch."
This year, the betting public has backed Cunningham for MVP more than any other player in the NBA at BetMGM sportsbooks. That's substantial. According to the general public, there's little chance Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander will be eligible.
Why the rule might have to be changed
The NBA intended to cut down on load management with this rule. The league was tired of primetime games being ruined by a superstar resting an injury. It also didn't like that fans would go to a game and not see a player who is essentially healthy enough to play.
In the few seasons it has been in effect, it hasn't really hampered the awards. The best candidate has won the award or been named to the All-NBA team more often than not. No one who would otherwise be in contention has been ruled out because they missed 18 games or more.
This is the first time it has really come into play. Should either Nikola Jokic or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (or both) be removed from the ballot, the rule might change. The other would be gifted an automatic award without the voters having a chance to really have their say.
And if both are removed, then Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown, or whoever the award goes to will be ridiculed. It will be deemed an undeserved award, and it will be hard to disagree with that take.
Cunningham is a great NBA player and could continue surging up the odds boards this year and earn the MVP. If he's handed it because the two best players in the sport dealt with injuries and weren't just sitting out to rest, it won't be well received.
