It’s (unofficially) over for the 2025 Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are likely to hang around and won’t be eliminated from the playoffs for a bit, but make no mistake. It’s over. After two straight losses to fellow playoff hopefuls, the path back to the Super Bowl is virtually closed. The Chiefs will be sitting at home this January.
Kansas City Chiefs won’t be getting back to playoffs
Most teams that lose the Super Bowl do have trouble the following season. There’s an unfortunate hangover from losing the biggest game the players and coaches will arguably ever take part in. Look at the 2016 Carolina Panthers and 2024 San Francisco 49ers, two teams that didn’t even make the playoffs after losing the Super Bowl, let alone coming close to avenging themselves.
The 2025 Kansas City Chiefs appear to be on that track, even if they’re not like most teams that lose the big game. That was their third trip in a row, and their fifth in the Patrick Mahomes era. They don’t stand a chance of getting back this year.
They struggled en route to a 6-5 record despite, analytically, being a better team than they were in 2024 when they won 15 games. In so many metrics (EPA, DVOA, and more), this was a stronger team. They just had poor one-score luck, while they had incredible one-score luck last year.
Even still, sitting at 6-5, they had two playoff contenders who were also having down seasons. Neither the Dallas Cowboys nor the Houston Texans is a top-tier team this year. Losing to both of those teams to put the Chiefs at 6-7 is probably the death knell on their season.
The division has been out of reach for a while, but take a look at the AFC Wild Card. The Chiefs have a really difficult path ahead of them to even snag the seventh seed.
The following teams either own a wild card or are ahead of the Chiefs:
- Buffalo Bills (9-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4 pending MNF)
- Houston Texans (8-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
Even the Miami Dolphins (6-7) are right there in the wild-card race. And to make matters worse, the Chiefs have lost the tiebreaker to the Bills, Texans, and will need to beat the Chargers in Week 15 to have a chance to have a tiebreaker over them. Essentially, the Chiefs need to win more games this year than the Texans and Colts, and the Texans have the tiebreaker. NFL.com gives them a 15% probability of making the playoffs. The Athletic has them at 14%. It’s looking dire.
Here are their remaining games:
- vs. Chargers
- @ Titans
- Vs. Broncos
- @ Raiders
There are two “gimme” games in there that they’ll win, putting them at 8-7. Does anyone think they can beat both the Broncos and Chargers, or even one of them? That puts them at 9-8 most likely, with a chance at 10-7. They could also end up 8-9. Either way, the wild card in the AFC is pretty loaded, so nine wins almost undoubtedly do not get it done. To get back to the playoffs and have even the tiniest of chances to avenge their 2024 embarrassment against the Philadelphia Eagles, they’ll need to win out and probably get some help otherwise.
How did this happen? Bad luck. The Chiefs haven’t been able to run the ball, and their defense hasn’t gotten crucial stops when needed. However, they still have Patrick Mahomes playing at a very high level, and the defense is overall a solid unit. They’ve suffered some bad one-score luck, as mentioned, which has cost them several games. They’ve gone 1-6 in one-score games, and even just winning roughly half of them as many teams might do, they’d be in the conversation for the wild card and the division. Instead, they’re probably going home.
