Matthew Stafford's MVP Campaign is on Thin Ice
There's still a week to go, and it looks like both Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford will be active. At this point, they're the only two realistic MVP candidates. Josh Allen may be a distant third, and Justin Herbert might factor in, but they're not coming close to winning. And after a Monday night debacle, Stafford may not be winning, either.
NFL MVP is no longer Matthew Stafford's award to lose
For most of the season, Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford have matched each other stride for stride. Stafford always had the statistical advantage, but Maye consistently had the "more with less" argument because he isn't throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
However, as Stafford continued to pile up stats at a near-historic rate, Maye's middling or at least uninspiring box scores hurt his case. Matthew Stafford looked poised to run away with the award just due to sheer statistical dominance. It helped that the Los Angeles Rams were the best team in football.
Now, neither is true. The Rams have fallen a bit on hard times, and the NFC South has given them fits. In the last few weeks, the Rams lost to the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons by a combined six points. They also blew a 16-point lead to the Seattle Seahawks, which has cost them dearly.
Heading into Week 13, Stafford had just two interceptions. Since then, he's thrown 12 touchdowns, but he's added six interceptions. That's a fine ratio, but it's not exactly MVP caliber. The Rams are 2-3 in those games, too.
If it were a statistical award, Stafford would likely still have it. He is second in yards, second in yards per game, first in touchdown passes (by a margin of nine), fourth in QBR, and second in RTG. He also only has eight interceptions.
But it's not purely a statistical award, and Maye is up there in many of those metrics, too. Stafford had the advantage, but now it's Maye's award to lose. The odds agree with that idea. Right now, Maye is -400 on DraftKings. Stafford is +300, and no one else is close.
Drake Maye's narrative
Drake Maye's MVP campaign always sat in the narrative department. His stats are fantastic, but he's behind Stafford in yards, touchdowns (by 12), and has the same number of interceptions. The stats are great, but they're not earth-shattering.
But the narrative always plays a factor, and while Matthew Stafford has the aging vet storyline, Maye is in his second season. It is rare for a player to be this good this young, but Maye is one of the best in the sport already.
Plus, Maye is doing a whole lot more with less. Mike Vrabel's a good coach, but he's not an offensive guy, and he's certainly not Sean McVay. Stefon Diggs is coming off a major knee injury, and he's not remotely close to Davante Adams or Puka Nacua.
Treveyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are solid, but they're not Kyren Williams. The only thing Maye does have is a better tight end, but Hunter Henry isn't exactly a dominant tight end. And beyond Diggs, the WR depth chart has very little impact talent.
Maye turned the Patriots around. They won four games in 2024, and they're now without their first-round pick, Will Campbell. Their turnaround, while aided by Vrabel, is simply down to the fact that they have Maye, and he's evolved into an MVP candidate.
They went from four wins to at least 13 wins. They could be the AFC's top seed. And they're already the AFC East champion. Those are team things, but the team is being carried largely by Maye, and that's why he's the MVP as of now.
